Archive / Ramblings / Bedman? Patch Predictions (7/26/2025)

ALERT!! ALERT!! NEW DEVELOPER BACKYARD AFTER 392 DAYS OF WAITING!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!

ArcSys is beginning to communicate with us! Glad to see it. Not only did they give more general details about Season 4's characters and Ranked Mode, but they even gave a small preview of the new patch! Which of course means I must dissect what their plans are.

This Developer Backyard released at midnight while I was asleep. What happened in the middle of the dream I was having? ArcSys released the next patch notes* early.

COINCIDENCE?!?!!?!?!?

No! It means I have the ability to detect any time ArcSys releases news even while asleep. Of course this has basically no use since everyone else will already have seen the announcements, but still... perhaps this power is granted to Bedman? players??

Obvious joking aside, it was very funny to wake up and realize that they actually did post something. If this happens again though, I'm treating it as fact.

*While I can't remember most of the dreamt patch I do know Bedman?'s j.S lost its vacuum. We will ignore that. That part won't happen.

Here are ArcSys's planned balance changes:

Fairly basic, all things considered. Season 4 itself didn't make any meaningful changes to the system mechanics, so this will rectify that.

While they will be all be nerfed, it would be weird if they became useless. The nerfs need to be meaningful yet not overwhelming.

Wild Assault's properties will have "reduced utility and dependency". To me this means suggests that every version will be stripped down to a single main function. Outside of that, they won't have much.

Orange Wild Assault's main function will likely be combo extensions. But when it doesn't hit, it will be quite weak.

The previous update to address Wild Assaults was v1.38, which made it have less momentum when blocked. Due to this, I assume that they want it to be weak in neutral and blockstrings. Therefore it is now uncancelable when blocked, and has very slightly more pushback on block. It is still safe, it just can't lead to continued pressure.

In addition, it will now lead to less damage when used in combos. Its primary use is the fact that it allows for combos in previously impossible scenarios, and has significant corner carry. It is still helpful, just less. To accomplish this, it now applies 80% forced proration when uncharged and 90% when charged.

Orange Wild AssaultNERF

Can no longer be canceled when blocked.

Slightly increased pushback on block.

Now applies 80% forced proration when uncharged.
Now applies 90% forced proration when charged.

Blue Wild Assault's main functions are pretty obviously the high advantage on block and stagger to combo into throws. Due to this, its use in other combos is being gutted.

To reduce the reward of combos utilizing Blue Wild Assault, it now applies 80% forced proration when uncharged and 90% when charged. It also applies additional combo decay.

It also now covers very slightly less distance, making it less usable as a plus neutral skip.

Blue Wild AssaultNERF

Combo decay increased from 10 to 25.

Distance traveled decreased by 10%.
Now applies 80% forced proration when uncharged.
Now applies 90% forced proration when charged.

White Wild Assault once again has a pretty obvious use case as an anti-projectile neutral skip. Which once again means it will have its abilities outside of that killed.

Any use WWA had in combos is gone, as it now applies 60% forced proration and has increased R.I.S.C. loss. The combos it had still exist, they just do way less damage.

In addition, WWA has slightly increased startup, making it a bit harder to combo into and easier for the opponenet to recover in time to block it.

White Wild AssaultNERF

Startup increased from 20~31 [32] to 22~33 [34].

R.I.S.C. Loss when uncharged increased from 3000 to 3500.

R.I.S.C. Loss when charged increased from 2000 to 2500.

Now applies 60% forced proration when uncharged.
Now applies 70% forced proration when charged.

Guard Crush's effects will be "made easier to deal with". The specifc wording of "effects" is what matters most. Guard Crush, as a mechanic, is actually pretty barebones. The main uses are the lack of auto-block, inability to use YRC, and lack of throw protection. To me, this pretty obviously points to gaining standard throw protection.

I also believe they would address the lack of cross-up protection. They can't just straight-up remove the crossup options using it, but I believe it would get a little bit to prevent the multihit guard crush crossups availible to Faust (with Meteors / Scarecrow) and Asuka (with Arpeggio + Shooting Time Stretch / Go to Marker). On the frame that the player crosses up the guard crushed opponent, it applies 5f of crossup protection.

Guard CrushNERF

Added 5f of throw invulnerability.

Now applies 5f of crossup protection when the opponent crosses up a guard crushed character.

As a side note I really don't understand that complete hatred directed towards Guard Crush as a concept. The only bad part is the lack of throw invuln. Other than that I see no issue with Guard Crush itself. The true problem is with the moves themselves.

R.I.S.C. level is the most defined change, described as "a small amount of accumulation no longer easily leads to high damage compared to before". The question is really just how to accomplish that goal.

It isn't particularly easy to solve this though. R.I.S.C. is a pretty set-in-stone mechanic with little room for change. The best I can think of is making R.I.S.C. deplete at a faster rate when at lower values. There are also many changes surrounding the first attack to decrease R.I.S.C.

R.I.S.C. gain in the air has also been reduced, making anti-airs less potent at raising R.I.S.C. quickly.

R.I.S.C. GainNERF

Decreased the extra R.I.S.C gain when blocking mids in the air from 50% to 25%.

Decreased the extra R.I.S.C gain when blocking lows and overheads in the air from 100% to 50%.

R.I.S.C. LossNERF

The initial 25% decrease of total R.I.S.C. now has a lower limit of 1000 R.I.S.C. loss.

The initial attack to decrease R.I.S.C. now applies 125% R.I.S.C. loss.

R.I.S.C. DepletionNERF

Increased speed and threshhold at which it applies.

R.I.S.C.

Previous Speed

New Speed

26%

-

120%

51%

150%

160%

76%

200%

Coincidentally, Bedman? heavily relies on all three of these major changes, meaning they will need a decent amount of compensation buffs. I will now step through each of the system mechanics to provide proper buffs in exchange for these changes, followed by some small quality-of-life buffs that Bedman? should get regardless.

Bedman? relies on White Wild Assault in multiple matchups due to thier mediocre movement and difficulty approaching. ArcSys will probably give some very minor buffs to Bedman?'s neutral.

5K's hitbox is expanded to the floor. This makes it better at checking low profile attacks.

f.S and 2S are getting reworks to be more useful in neutral to give them variance in their use cases. f.S has an increased attack level to make cancelling into 2H easier, and 2S now vacuums to make it more useful at the furthest possible range.

call 4BA now has slightly better recovery, making it more useful in neutral.

5KBUFF

Increased lower hitbox close to Bedman?.

f.SBUFF

Increased attack level from 2 to 3.

On-Block changed from -9 to -6.
On-Hit changed from -6 to -3.

2SREWORK

Startup increased from 12f to 13f.

Recovery increased from 22f to 25f.

On-Block changed from -11 to -14.
On-Hit changed from -8 to -11.

Now vacuums on contact.

call 4BA [236P]BUFF

Recovery decreased from 30f to 29f.

Decreased vertical movement of air version to decrease recovery by roughly 3f.

Ground Version:

On-Block changed from -11 to -10.
On-Hit changed from -8 to -7.

Air Version:

On-Block changed from -10 to -7.
On-Hit changed from -7 to -4.

While far from thier old playstyle of guard crush loops, Bedman? still relies heavily on guard crush. However, the specific aspects of Guard Crush that were nerfed were not overly important to Bedman?. Certain guard crush related moves will probably get some super minor buffs.

Malfunction has very slightly more reward to compensate for its difficulty to land and loss of throw setups. Its Error 6e followup will also get some extra guard crush time.

The call 13c errors have not been changed as they are already overly powerful enough.

call 4B9 (Malfunction) [236H]BUFF

Recovery decreased from 23f to 22f.

Uncharged:

On-Block changed from +3 to +4.
On-Hit changed from HKD +73 to HKD +74.

Partial Charge:

On-Block changed from +9 to +10.
On-Hit changed from HKD +80 to HKD +81.

Full Charge:

On-Block changed from +15 to +16.
On-Hit changed from HKD +88 to HKD +89.

Error 6E H [!H]BUFF

Uncharged:

Guard Crush duration increased from 23 to 27.
On-Block changed from +38 to +42.

Partial Charge:

Guard Crush duration increased from 29 to 34.
On-Block changed from +44 to +49.

Full Charge:

Guard Crush duration increased from 35 to 41.
On-Block changed from +50 to +56.

Bedman?'s long blockstrings allow them to build R.I.S.C. easily, and they need to rely on it to get meaningful damage. I could see ArcSys taking this as an opportunity to give their key moves some slight damage buffs. Though I can also see them doing nothing.

f.SBUFF

Damage increased from 35 to 40.

2SBUFF

Damage increased from 33 to 35.

2HBUFF

Damage increased from 8x5 [40 (36)] to 9x4, 11 [47 (43)]

6HBUFF

Damage increased from 63 to 65.

j.HBUFF

Damage increased from 9x6 [54 (44)] to 10x5, 12 [62 (52)].

j.DBUFF

Damage increased from 49 to 51.

call 4B3 [236S]BUFF

Damage increased from 11×5 [55 (43)] to 12x4, 14 [62 (50)].

Error 6E S [!S]BUFF

Damage increased from 11×5 [55 (43)] to 12x4, 14 [62 (50)].

The only miscellaneous change Bedman? needs is the changes to how !S interacts with the wall, since it has been complained about for so long.

Error 6E S [!S]REWORK

First four hits now remove wallstick.

Wall damage increased from 140x5 (700) to 950.

Here are the system changes I could see this patch introducing:

Orange Wild AssaultNERF

Can no longer be canceled when blocked.

Slightly increased pushback on block.

Now applies 80% forced proration when uncharged.
Now applies 90% forced proration when charged.

Blue Wild AssaultNERF

Combo decay increased from 10 to 25.

Distance traveled decreased by 10%.
Now applies 80% forced proration when uncharged.
Now applies 90% forced proration when charged.

White Wild AssaultNERF

Startup increased from 20~31 [32] to 22~33 [34].

R.I.S.C. Loss when uncharged increased from 3000 to 3500.

R.I.S.C. Loss when charged increased from 2000 to 2500.

Now applies 60% forced proration when uncharged.
Now applies 70% forced proration when charged.

Guard CrushNERF

Added 5f of throw invulnerability.

Now applies 5f of crossup protection when the opponent crosses up a guard crushed character.

R.I.S.C. GainNERF

Decreased the extra R.I.S.C gain when blocking mids in the air from 50% to 25%.

Decreased the extra R.I.S.C gain when blocking lows and overheads in the air from 100% to 50%.

R.I.S.C. LossNERF

The initial 25% decrease of total R.I.S.C. now has a lower limit of 1000 R.I.S.C. loss.

The initial attack to decrease R.I.S.C. now applies 125% R.I.S.C. loss.

R.I.S.C. DepletionNERF

Increased speed and threshhold at which it applies.

R.I.S.C.

Previous Speed

New Speed

26%

-

120%

51%

150%

160%

76%

200%

And here are the changes I could see them giving to Bedman? as compensation:

5KBUFF

Increased lower hitbox close to Bedman?.

f.SBUFF

Damage increased from 35 to 40.

Increased attack level from 2 to 3.

On-Block changed from -9 to -6.
On-Hit changed from -6 to -3.

2SREWORK

Damage increased from 33 to 35.

Startup increased from 12f to 13f.

Recovery increased from 22f to 25f.

On-Block changed from -11 to -14.
On-Hit changed from -8 to -11.

Now vacuums on contact.

2HBUFF

Damage increased from 8x5 [40 (36)] to 9x4, 11 [47 (43)]

6HBUFF

Damage increased from 63 to 65.

j.HBUFF

Damage increased from 9x6 [54 (44)] to 10x5, 12 [62 (52)].

j.DBUFF

Damage increased from 49 to 51.

call 4BA [236P]BUFF

Recovery decreased from 30f to 29f.

Decreased vertical movement of air version to decrease recovery by roughly 3f.

Ground Version:

On-Block changed from -11 to -10.
On-Hit changed from -8 to -7.

Air Version:

On-Block changed from -10 to -7.
On-Hit changed from -7 to -4.

call 4B3 [236S]BUFF

Damage increased from 11×5 [55 (43)] to 12x4, 14 [62 (50)].

Error 6E S [!S]REWORK

Damage increased from 11×5 [55 (43)] to 12x4, 14 [62 (50)].

First four hits now remove wallstick.

Wall damage increased from 140x5 (700) to 950.

call 4B9 (Malfunction) [236H]BUFF

Recovery decreased from 23f to 22f.

Uncharged:

On-Block changed from +3 to +4.
On-Hit changed from HKD +73 to HKD +74.

Partial Charge:

On-Block changed from +9 to +10.
On-Hit changed from HKD +80 to HKD +81.

Full Charge:

On-Block changed from +15 to +16.
On-Hit changed from HKD +88 to HKD +89.

Error 6E H [!H]BUFF

Uncharged:

Guard Crush duration increased from 23 to 27.
On-Block changed from +38 to +42.

Partial Charge:

Guard Crush duration increased from 29 to 34.
On-Block changed from +44 to +49.

Full Charge:

Guard Crush duration increased from 35 to 41.
On-Block changed from +50 to +56.